Current outcome
A coalition including former officials, the NFL, 39 states and 145 tribal nations filed amicus briefs urging the Supreme Court to weigh in on whether sports-based prediction market contracts are swaps, while the CFTC issued two proposals — one an interim final rule already in effect — setting out its own position on the question.
Progress timeline
15 material updates- #01
Washington Goes All-In on Crypto: Trump, SEC, CFTC Advance New Rules
Source evidence: Decrypt · Decrypt · Decrypt · The Crypto Times · foresightnews · CryptoRank · theblockbeats · CoinDesk · The Defiant · The Defiant · Decrypt · Cointelegraph
- #02
New Jersey asks Supreme Court to decide who regulates sports betting on prediction markets
New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to decide whether sports betting on prediction markets should be regulated by states or federal authorities.
Source evidence: The Block · Cointelegraph · CoinDesk
- #03
Morning Minute: Selig Says ‘It’s Go Time’ for CFTC Crypto Rules
CFTC Chair Mike Selig said on CNBC it is 'go time' for the agency to write crypto market-structure rules, focused on perpetuals, using existing statutory authority after the Senate blocked the Clarity Act; SEC also approved a five-year Innovation Exemption and CFTC issued a no-action letter and filed two prerules.
State after update: Washington's crypto policy push enters a new stage: after legislation stalled, the CFTC pivots to using existing authority to write market-structure rules for perpetuals, while the SEC advances exemptions and custody proposals.
Source evidence: Decrypt
- #04
New York sues Polymarket over alleged illegal gambling business
New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket, alleging its sports event contracts violate state gambling laws and seeking potentially to block the platform for New York residents.
Source evidence: Cointelegraph · CoinDesk · CryptoSlate · Decrypt · Bitcoin Magazine · BitKE · CryptoRank
- #05
New York Sues Polymarket US Over Unlicensed Gambling
The New York Attorney General sued Polymarket in Manhattan court, specifically seeking to bar the CFTC-designated exchange from operating in New York, triple its gains, and impose $100,000 per sports contract.
State after update: New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Polymarket in Manhattan court, alleging unlicensed gambling and seeking an injunction, treble damages, and $100,000 per sports contract.
Source evidence: The Defiant · The Block
- #06
U.S. commodities firms can invest in tokenized assets, use blockchain records: CFTC
The CFTC has issued further guidance affirming that U.S. commodities and derivatives firms can invest in tokenized assets and use blockchain records for compliance, signaling continued regulatory openness to tokenization.
Source evidence: CoinDesk · Cointelegraph
- #07
U.S. CFTC seeks event contract definitions that may defy states' gambling claims
The U.S. CFTC submitted two rules to White House review that would define prediction-market event contracts as swaps and explicitly disconnect them from gambling, setting up a conflict with states and recent court rulings.
Source evidence: CoinDesk · foresightnews · Cointelegraph
- #08
美CFTC提出首个正式加密市场规则
The CFTC proposed its first formal crypto market rules through new CTX and CAM regulations, abandoning an enforcement-only approach to regulating digital asset markets.
Source evidence: theblockbeats
- #09
Morning Minute: The CFTC Reveals Plan to Regulate Crypto Exchanges
The CFTC published a preliminary plan to federally license and regulate crypto exchanges via proposed Regulations CTX and CAM and opened a 60-day public comment period, while the SEC cleared 3x levered Bitcoin and Ether funds for trading.
Source evidence: Decrypt · CryptoRank · theblockbeats
- #10
【CFTC 主席解读新规：只有联邦监管的加密交易平台才能提供杠杆交易，但百倍杠杆不会被允许】
CFTC Chair Michael Selig said under the agency's proposed rules only federally regulated crypto trading platforms could offer leveraged trading, that states would be limited to money transmission, and that 100x leverage would remain prohibited in the US.
Source evidence: foresightnews
- #11
NFL tells Supreme Court prediction market sports contracts are gambling, not swaps
The NFL filed an amicus brief urging the U.S. Supreme Court to take up New Jersey's challenge and arguing that Kalshi's sports contracts are gambling rather than CFTC-regulated swaps.
State after update: New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to decide whether sports betting on prediction markets should be regulated by states or federal authorities; the NFL filed an amicus brief supporting Supreme Court review and arguing Kalshi's sports contracts are gambling.
Source evidence: The Block
- #12
【NFL 支持各州监管预测市场体育合约，反对 CFTC 独占管辖权】
The NFL filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court supporting New Jersey's cert petition in the Kalshi case, arguing states may impose gambling regulation on prediction-market sports event contracts and disputing the CFTC's claim of exclusive federal jurisdiction, citing unmet manipulation safeguards, insider-betting limits, and age-21 requirements that Kalshi does not follow.
Source evidence: foresightnews
- #13
美CFTC拟将预测市场事件合约纳入掉期监管，争夺联邦监管权
The CFTC issued an immediately effective interim final rule and proposed a new rule to bring prediction-market event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket under its swaps regulatory framework; the interim final rule is effective immediately but remains open to comment, while the proposed rule has a 30-day comment period.
State after update: The CFTC has issued an immediately effective interim final rule and a proposed rule to bring prediction-market event contracts under its swaps regulatory framework, escalating its jurisdiction dispute with states.
Source evidence: theblockbeats
- #14
CFTC proposes a divide between prediction contracts and sportsbook wagers
The CFTC proposed expressly including sports, political, cultural and weather event contracts in the swap definition and issued an interim final rule excluding sportsbook and casino wagers, further drawing the federal line between prediction markets and gambling.
State after update: The CFTC has proposed including sports, political, cultural and weather event contracts in the swap definition and issued an immediately effective interim final rule excluding sportsbook and casino wagers, each with a 30-day comment period, continuing its jurisdiction conflict with states.
Source evidence: CryptoSlate
- #15
Everyone wants SCOTUS to take up prediction markets: State of Crypto
A coalition including former officials, the NFL, 39 states and 145 tribal nations filed amicus briefs urging the Supreme Court to weigh in on whether sports-based prediction market contracts are swaps, while the CFTC issued two proposals — one an interim final rule already in effect — setting out its own position on the question.
Source evidence: CoinDesk